Monday, October 31, 2011

[californiadisasters] Santa Ana Wind Weather Bulletin (10/31/11-PM)



...SANTA ANA EVENT LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A COLD AIR MASS SETTLING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WILL
DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER NEVADA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN TO THE REGION BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE AIR
MASS WARMING AND DRYING AS IT IS FORCED OVER THE AREA
MOUNTAINS...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO
CRITICAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE DRY AIR COMBINES WITH STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY COASTS...VALLEYS...AND MOUNTAINS SHOULD
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. PARKING
RESTRICTIONS MAY TAKE PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

IF TRAVELING IN A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE...SUCH AS A MOTOR HOME OR
SEMI-TRAILER...THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY...IT ADVISED THAT YOU MAKE YOUR TRAVEL PLANS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING WINDY WEATHER PATTERN. OPERATORS
OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO ALTER THEIR ROUTES OR DELAY
TRAVEL UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO CAPABLE
OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES.

FOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND UPDATES ON THIS SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT...STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
MEDIA SOURCE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

$$

HALL/SMITH

Source: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lox&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

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[californiadisasters] High Wind Watch - LACo (10/31/11-PM)



...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG
TO THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST AND CATALINA ISLAND TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO ONE QUARTER
MILE OR LESS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS...AS
WELL AS THE SAN GABRIEL AND SANTA YNEZ VALLEYS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS TO MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES
COUNTY...WHERE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

CAZ054-010530-
/O.NEW.KLOX.HW.A.0011.111102T0500Z-111102T2200Z/
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ACTON...MOUNT WILSON...SANDBERG
223 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...AREAS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65
MPH.

* TIMING...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
PEAKING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG MANY MOUNTAIN
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$

KITTELL

Source: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lox&wwa=high%20wind%20watch

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Read my blog at http://eclecticarcania.blogspot.com/
My Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/derkimster
Linkedin profile: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/kim-noyes/9/3a1/2b8
Follow me on Twitter @DisasterKim



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[californiadisasters] Fire Weather Watches - SoCal (10/31/11-PM)



...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST VALLEYS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT A MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME...PEAK WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AT THE ONSET OF THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT... BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO THE TEENS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
HAVING 6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MANY
VALLEY AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REASON...ALL VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES...EXCEPT THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...HAVE BEEN ADDED
TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

CAZ288-011700-
/O.EXA.KLOX.FW.A.0006.111102T1200Z-111102T2200Z/
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
247 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
FOR THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...STRONGEST
IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DROPPING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN FALLING TO 10 PERCENT OR LOWER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITY... AND DRY FUEL CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR 6 HOURS OR MORE...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR
FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH. LISTEN FOR
LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
247 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST VALLEYS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT A MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME...PEAK WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AT THE ONSET OF THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT... BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO THE TEENS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
HAVING 6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MANY
VALLEY AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REASON...ALL VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES...EXCEPT THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...HAVE BEEN ADDED
TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

CAZ246-011700-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0006.111102T1200Z-111102T2200Z/
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
247 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...STRONGEST THROUGH
PASSES AND CANYONS.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...FALLING INTO THE TEENS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS BY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITY... AND DRY FUEL CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR 6 HOURS OR MORE...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE
OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES (ALL LOWER CASE)

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
247 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST VALLEYS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT A MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME...PEAK WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AT THE ONSET OF THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT... BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO THE TEENS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
HAVING 6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MANY
VALLEY AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REASON...ALL VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES...EXCEPT THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...HAVE BEEN ADDED
TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

CAZ244-245-011700-
/O.EXA.KLOX.FW.A.0006.111102T1200Z-111102T2200Z/
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
247 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES FOR THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...STRONGEST
IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
SANTA CLARA RIVER VALLEY AND SURROUNDING HILLS.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DROPPING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN FALLING TO 10 PERCENT OR LOWER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITY... AND DRY FUEL CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR 6 HOURS OR MORE...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR
FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH. LISTEN FOR
LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
247 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST VALLEYS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT A MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME...PEAK WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AT THE ONSET OF THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT... BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO THE TEENS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
HAVING 6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MANY
VALLEY AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REASON...ALL VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES...EXCEPT THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...HAVE BEEN ADDED
TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

CAZ547-011700-
/O.EXA.KLOX.FW.A.0006.111102T1200Z-111102T2200Z/
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
247 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES FOR THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...STRONGEST
IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY. THESE AREAS INCLUDE PORTER
RANCH...CHATSWORTH...AND SURROUNDING HILLS.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DROPPING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN FALLING TO 10 PERCENT OR LOWER BY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITY... AND DRY FUEL CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR 6 HOURS OR MORE...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR
FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH. LISTEN FOR
LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
247 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MOST VALLEYS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEVADA AND UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT A MODERATE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE PASSES AND CANYONS
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME...PEAK WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS AT THE ONSET OF THE OFFSHORE WIND EVENT... BUT
WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO THE TEENS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOS ANGELES
AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
HAVING 6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT THE MANY
VALLEY AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REASON...ALL VALLEYS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES...EXCEPT THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...HAVE BEEN ADDED
TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

CAZ253-254-011700-
/O.CON.KLOX.FW.A.0006.111102T1200Z-111102T2200Z/
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS / LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS / ANGELES NATIONAL FOREST-
247 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...STRONGEST THROUGH
PASSES AND CANYONS.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...FALLING INTO THE TEENS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS BY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITY... AND DRY FUEL CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR 6 HOURS OR MORE...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE
OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
849 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...VERY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY ON
WEDNESDAY...

.A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASING OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS LIKELY TO GENERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 25 PERCENT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 35 MPH. MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

CAZ248-256-258-011300-
/O.CON.KSGX.FW.A.0001.111102T1600Z-111103T0200Z/
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE SAN JACINTO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO
NATIONAL FOREST-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE
CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST-
849 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...LOCALLY
REACHING 45 MPH NEAR THE BANNING PASS AND I-8 CORRIDOR.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...LOWEST DAYTIME AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.

* TIMING...9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH 7 PM PDT WEDNESDAY.

* OUTLOOK...HUMIDITIES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE. LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

SS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
849 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...VERY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY ON
WEDNESDAY...

.A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASING OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS LIKELY TO GENERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 25 PERCENT. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 35 MPH. MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

CAZ255-257-011300-
/O.CON.KSGX.FW.A.0001.111102T1200Z-111103T0200Z/
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN TOP AND FRONT COUNTRY RANGER DISTRICTS OF
THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE TRABUCO RANGER DISTRICT OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL
FOREST-
849 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WITH
LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS. STRONGEST WINDS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...LOWEST DAYTIME AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.

* TIMING... 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 7 PM WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

* OUTLOOK...HUMIDITIES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE. LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

Source: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lox&wwa=fire%20weather%20watch

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[californiadisasters] Red Flag Warnings - Bay Area (10/31/11-PM)



...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS
FROM 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A SURFACE HIGH WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN VERY POOR TO NO RELATIVE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

CAZ507-511-011300-
/O.CON.KMTR.FW.W.0004.111101T1300Z-111102T1300Z/
NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-EAST BAY HILLS AND DIABLO RANGE-
217 PM PDT MON OCT 31 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST BAY HILLS...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
PDT WEDNESDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS ABOVE 1000 FEET.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY ARRIVE IN THE NAPA COUNTY
HILLS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE EAST BAY HILLS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTAL HILLS OF MARIN AND
SONOMA COUNTY.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 30-45 PERCENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
LOWERING TO 15-20% TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRE STARTS DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUPPRESS WITH RAPID
RATES OF SPREAD. PRESCRIBED AND BACKYARD BURNERS SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION DURING THIS RED FLAG EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO (ALL LOWER CASE)

Source: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mtr&wwa=red%20flag%20warning

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[californiadisasters] South Ops News & Notes Update (10/31/11-6PM)



Date

Time

News and Notes

10/31

1800

South Ops GACC today welcomed Fire Chiefs Philippe Delquie and Pierre Bisone, visiting the southland from France through the cooperative USDA-Forest Service's International Program. They will be visiting national forests, national parks, and local fire agencies during their 12-day stay in Southern California.

10/30

0800

The National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard has issued a Red flag Warning which is in effect until 1500 hrs PDT today for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties with breezy offshore winds and very low relative humilities.  Some areas may see northeast winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph through the passes and canyons, but diminishing late this afternoon. Relative humidity readings also may dip below 10 percent through this afternoon with very poor overnight recoveries under 20 percent. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=lox

10/28

1800

Light initial attack in the GACC today.

10/27

0830

It was 18 years ago today that the Laguna fire burned 14,337 acres in Orange County and damaged or destroyed 441 homes, causing an estimated $528 million dollars in damages. http://www.cccarto.com/cal_wildfire/lagunabeach/fire.html

Source: http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/intelligence/news_notes/index.htm

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[californiadisasters] On This Date In CA Weather History (October 31)



On This Date In California Weather History....

2003: This was the last day that no measurable rain fell in San Diego for 181 consecutive days.
This second longest dry streak on record began on 5.3.

1995: The Bakersfield Weather Service Office issued its last products as forecast responsibility was transferred to the San Joaquin Valley Weather Forecast Office in Hanford.

1987: Heavy rain hit Mt. Wilson with 3.14 inches in 24 hours.
Numerous mudslides occurred in the area.
Three died and 25 were injured in weather-related auto accidents.
2.34 inches fell in Mt. Laguna, 1.28 inches in Alpine, and 1.10 inches in El Cajon causing minor flooding problems.

1974: A funnel cloud was sighted southeast of Castle AFB in Merced.

1949: Fresno had its latest 90-degree day.

1935:
It was 34° in Santa Ana, the lowest temperature on record for October.
This also occurred on 10.21.1949 and 10.12.1924.

Source: NWS Hanford & San Diego


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[californiadisasters] On This Date In CA Weather History (October 30)



On This Date In California Weather History....

1996: An early season winter-like storm system brought heavy rain to the Valley, heavy snow to the Sierra and post-frontal severe storms to the Valley as well.
Grant Grove received 24" of snow, a record storm total for the month of October at this location.
Edison Lake received 27" and Shaver Lake 15".
An F0 tornado touched down near Fresno and there were a few reports of half-inch diameter hail in Fresno.

1992: Four funnel clouds were spotted in the Valley: one each in Coalinga and Avenal and 2 in Lemoore.

1972: Coldest low on record in Fresno during the month of October is set, 27 degrees.

1971: The low temperature was 43° in San Diego, 33° in Borrego Springs, and 21° in Victorville, each the lowest temperature on record for October.

1971: Coldest minimum on record for the month of October in Bakersfield, 29 degrees.
Lodgepole saw its' coldest minimum on record, 1 above.

Source: NWS Hanford & San Diego

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[californiadisasters] On This Date In CA Weather History (October 29)



On This Date In California Weather History....

2007: One of the largest severe weather outbreaks on record in interior Central California occurred during the afternoon and evening hours of October 29th.
An upper-level low moving inland across Central California interacted with a surge of tropical moisture, triggering thunderstorms that produced hail in many places as large
as one inch in diameter and gusty winds as well as locally drenching rains.
Hardest hit was the northwest side of the City of Fresno where rainfall totals of one to two inches were reported and a number of streets flooded quickly during the evening rush hour resulting in a number of stalled vehicles.
Nearly four hours after the thunderstorms had ended some streets in Northwest Fresno were still covered with several feet of water.
In addition, hail ranging from ¾ of an inch to an inch in diameter fell.
The combination of the heavy rain and hail resulted in the collapse of the roof on 80,000 square foot warehouse.
Thunderstorm winds also knocked out power to 18,000 customers in Fresno.
In Tulare County, two houses had trees fall on them causing damage in Visalia and about 200 boats were damaged at a boat dock on Lake Kaweah.
Downed trees were reported in the valley from Merced County to Tulare County and eastward into the Sierra Nevada at Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks.

2000: Severe thunderstorms produced severe weather across the central and southern San Joaquin Valley.
¾" hail fell near Merced and Chowchilla.
Funnel clouds were reported in Hanford, Visalia and Pixley.

1989: Winds gust to 50 mph at Lebec.

1974: A tornado touched down in Encinitas.
Four inches of snow fell in Palomar Mountain, the greatest daily snowfall on record for October.

1971: It was 10° in Big Bear Lake, the lowest temperature on record for October.
This also occurred on 10.23.1961.
It was 11° in Idyllwild and 18° in Palomar Mountain, each the lowest temperature on record for October.

1965: A very long heat wave that began on 10.20 ended on this day.
A peak temperature of 104° was recorded in San Diego on 10.22.
LA had 10 consecutive days with afternoon highs reaching at least 100 degrees.

1959: Fresno recorded its' highest sustained wind on record for the month of October, 40 mph from the northeast.
"Considerable" damage occurred in the central San Joaquin Valley as a result.

Source: NWS Hanford & San Diego

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[californiadisasters] On This Date In CA Weather History (October 28)



On This Date In California Weather History....

2000: Funnel clouds were observed around Newport Beach and Costa Mesa.

1990: It was 100° in Borrego Springs, the latest date in the season a 100° temperature was recorded.

1971: High of only 55 degrees at Bakersfield, lowest on record for the month of October.

1970: It was 32° in Riverside, the earliest date in the season a freezing temperature was recorded.

1948: Reno, NV had a morning low of 14.

Source: NWS Hanford, Reno, & San Diego

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[Geology2] Few have insurance for a big earthquake Southern California residents' coverage limited




Few have insurance for a big earthquake

Southern California residents' coverage limited

Oct. 16, 2011  |  

Cary Mann knows the risk of a major earthquake in the Coachella Valley. He has no doubt such a quake could be catastrophic.

But Mann doesn't carry earthquake insurance on either his Cathedral City home or on the peroXide hair salon he co-owns on Palm Canyon Drive.

"I've grown up in Southern California and none of my family have ever had it," he said. "They've always said that if there was ever going to be a 'Big One,' the damage would be so massive that the insurance would never be able to pay out to everyone."

"In hard times you look for whatever you can live without, and earthquake insurance is definitely in that category."

Mann isn't alone. According to the Insurance Information Network of California, fewer than 12 percent of Californians with homeowners policies also had earthquake insurance last year, and fewer than 10 percent of businesses had the coverage.

Conventional home and business insurance coverage does not cover the damage caused by ground-shaking in an earthquake, said Glenn Pomeroy, CEO of the California Earthquake Authority, a non-profit, public-private enterprise including about 70 percent of private home-insurers. The authority's mission is to provide affordable earthquake insurance in California.

When factoring in California homeowners who don't have any insurance coverage at all, the percentage who have earthquake coverage drops even further, Pomeroy said.

"It is surprising, when you consider the majority of the nation's earthquake risk is right here," he said.

The median price for earthquake coverage in California is between $800 and $825 per year, said Insurance Information Network spokesman Pete Moraga. Factors include a home's age, type of construction, and where it's located.

Homeowners in an area considered at high risk of a major earthquake — such as the Coachella Valley — can expect to pay more, he said.

And the deductible is high. The earthquake authority offers a standard deductible of 15 percent of the insured value of the home, or a more expensive 10 percent deductible.

A homeowner with an insured value of $200,000, for example, would pay a $30,000 deductible before insurance kicked in on an earthquake loss if the policy-holder took the standard deductible.

Research shows that historically, the southern San Andreas fault that runs along the Coachella Valley's northern edge has had a major earthquake every 150 years. But it's been at least 300 years since the last major temblor on that section of the fault.

A 2007 study by the Newark-based Rick Management Solutions Inc. looked at the potential costs today of an earthquake the equivalent of the last "Big One" anywhere on the San Andreas fault — the 7.9 magnitude Fort Tejon quake, which erupted 75 miles northwest of Bakersfield in 1857.

Such a quake today, the study found, would cause $150 billion in damage to homes, businesses and industries, with only about $15 billion to $25 billion covered by insurance.

By comparison, Hurricane Katrina's losses are estimated at $125 billion, with about half covered by insurance.

Many hold back on earthquake insurance because they believe the federal government will bail them out, Pomeroy said.

"It's in the country's interest to have more homes properly insured in California," Pomeroy said.

Northridge lessons

It was 1994's Northridge earthquake that changed the landscape for earthquake insurance in California.

Before that magnitude 6.7 temblor, private insurers offered their own earthquake policies, Pomeroy said.

"They didn't really have a handle on the size of the risk they were writing," he said.

The Northridge quake caused up to $8 billion in insurance losses.

"That minute-and-a-half wiped out 30 years of previous premiums insurers had collected prior to the event," the Insurance Information Network's Moraga said.

With California law requiring all companies offering home insurance in the state to also offer earthquake policies, many major insurance companies were ready to stop offering home coverage altogether, Pomeroy said.

To stem the crisis, the state legislature created the California Earthquake Authority in 1996. Private insurers were allowed to join and 17 companies did, representing about about 70 percent of the home insurers in California, including major firms like Farm Bureau, Allstate and Farmers.

The companies bought into the program at a cost totaling $700 million to start, Pomeroy said. A fund of $4 billion exists to provide earthquake coverage for those buying it through a member agency.

The authority also has up to $3 billion in coverage from reinsurance agencies — essentially insurance for insurance companies against major losses — and the ability to assess member companies for one more round of payments totaling another $3 billion if needed, he said.

The authority bears the risk for earthquake insurance for customers, not taxpayers, Pomeroy said.

"We're not caught up in any of that state budget mess, and the state is not exposed to any of our risk," he said. "We need to stand on our own."

The authority's analysis shows a repeat of the Northridge earthquake would cause about $4 billion in losses for its customers.

"We have access to up to $10 billion, so we have great financial strength," he said.

Risky proposition

But it's the vast numbers of uninsured who pose a potential nightmare scenario in a "Big One."

Moraga noted that right after the Northridge quake, 29 percent of state homeowners had earthquake coverage.

"The longer we go from having a major earthquake in a major urban area, people tend to forget about the type of damage a Northridge-type of earthquake can bring," he said.

Following a magnitude 7.2 quake on April 4, 2010, near Mexicali, Mexico that shook homes into the Coachella Valley and beyond, Pomeroy said the earthquake authority had the biggest surge in business in its history.

That record was topped following last March's Japanese earthquake.

It's not only the out-of-sight, out-of-mind fact of human nature that holds back many from obtaining earthquake coverage, but the economy as well.

"With the real estate market tanking, some think, 'My home value isn't as much anymore; I should lower my insurance coverage,'" Moraga said.

Scott Turner of La Quinta buys earthquake coverage for his home.

"The San Andreas fault runs right through the valley," he said. "As we understand it, this end of the fault is overdue for a big rupture. Although the deductible is high, it's much lower than rebuilding and replacing the contents of the house on our own."

Aiding affordability

The California Earthquake Authority is working to make coverage more affordable, Pomeroy said.

A bipartisan bill currently under consideration in Congress would reduce costs by allowing the authority to reduce the amount it pays for reinsurance by more than half — $100 million each year. The bill would provide federal backing to the authority for borrowing after a major earthquake event, Pomeroy said.

"We would pass those savings on directly to policy-holders," he said.


Keith Matheny is an investigative reporter for The Desert Sun.


Earthquake insurance costs

To learn more about how much earthquake insurance coverage would cost on your home per-year, visit the California Earthquake Authority's website at www.earthquakeauthority.com and click on the "Premium Calculator" tab.



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[Volcano_Vista_HS] VVHS Announcements--Monday, October 31, 2011



Homecoming pictures are in, stop by activities at lunch to pick them up.

Upcoming college visits! All are at lunch and all will be located between the E and F hall eateries. Tuesday, November 1st– The University of New Mexico

Retakes for those students who missed picture day will be Tuesday, November 8th during lunch. Stop by the activities office during lunch to sign up for an appointment.

MESA, the math and science club will be meeting today in Ms. Conell's room F103. We will be signing up for fieldtrips to Friday Fractals, and NM Tech. Everyone is welcome.

Want to learn about Hispanic cultures and have fun doing it! Come to Spanish Club Wednesdays at lunch in room A207! This week we will be creating Guatemalan Worry Dolls. New members are always welcome and you do not have to be in a Spanish class to participate.

There will be a French Honor Society meeting Wednesday at lunch in E113. This is a mandatory meeting for all inducted members. If you cannot come to themeeting, you need to come see Mrs. Taylor this week to see what you missed.

Athletics:

  • Congratulations to our JV Girls Soccer team for winning the NOVAR tournament.
  • Both our soccer teams are in the NMAA quarterfinals on Thursday.
  • The girls play at 3 and the boys play at 8:15 pm at the soccer tournament.
  • Congratulations to our girls cross country team for making it to the state meet. They will be running on Saturday at 9 am at Rio Rancho Hiigh School

And remember
As always…
It's great to be a Hawk!



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[Geology2] Prehistoric Greenhouse Data from Ocean Floor Could Predict Earth's Future, Study Finds




New research indicates that Atlantic Ocean temperatures during the greenhouse climate of the Late Cretaceous Epoch were influenced by circulation in the deep ocean. These changes in circulation patterns 70 million years ago could help scientists understand the consequences of modern increases in greenhouse gases. (Credit: © jim / Fotolia)

Prehistoric Greenhouse Data from Ocean Floor Could Predict Earth's Future, Study Finds

ScienceDaily (Oct. 27, 2011) — New research from the University of Missouri indicates that Atlantic Ocean temperatures during the greenhouse climate of the Late Cretaceous Epoch were influenced by circulation in the deep ocean. These changes in circulation patterns 70 million years ago could help scientists understand the consequences of modern increases in greenhouse gases.

 

"We are examining ocean conditions from several past greenhouse climate intervals so that we can understand better the interactions among the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere, and climate," said Kenneth MacLeod, professor of geological sciences in the College of Arts and Science. "The Late Cretaceous Epoch is a textbook example of a greenhouse climate on earth, and we have evidence that a northern water mass expanded southwards while the climate was cooling. At the same time, a warm, salty water mass that had been present throughout the greenhouse interval disappeared from the tropical Atlantic."

The study found that at the end of the Late Cretaceous greenhouse interval, water sinking around Greenland was replaced by surface water flowing north from the South Atlantic. This change caused the North Atlantic to warm while the rest of the globe cooled. The change started about five million years before the asteroid impact that ended the Cretaceous Period.

 

To track circulation patterns, the researchers focused on "neodymium," an element that is taken up by fish teeth and bones when a fish dies and falls to the ocean floor. MacLeod said the ratio of two isotopes of neodymium acts as a natural tracking system for water masses. In the area where a water mass forms, the water takes on a neodymium ratio like that in rocks on nearby land. As the water moves through the ocean, though, that ratio changes little. Because the fish take up the neodymium from water at the seafloor, the ratio in the fish fossils reflects the values in the area where the water sank into the deep ocean. Looking at changes through time and at many sites allowed the scientists to track water mass movements.

 

While high atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide caused Late Cretaceous warmth, MacLeod notes that ocean circulation influenced how that warmth was distributed around the globe. Further, ocean circulation patterns changed significantly as the climate warmed and cooled.

 

"Understanding the degree to which climate influences circulation and vice versa is important today because carbon dioxide levels are rapidly approaching levels most recently seen during ancient greenhouse times," said MacLeod. "In just a few decades, humans are causing changes in the composition of the atmosphere that are as large as the changes that took millions of years to occur during geological climate cycles."

 

The paper, "Changes in North Atlantic circulation at the end of the Cretaceous greenhouse interval," was published in the October online edition of the journal Nature Geoscience. Coauthors include C. Isaza LondoƱo of the University of Missouri; E.E. Martin and C. Basak of the University of Florida, and A. JimƩnez Berrocoso of the Unviersity of Manchester, United Kingdom. The study was sponsored by the National Science Foundation.



Story Source:

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by University of Missouri-Columbia.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Journal Reference:

  1. K. G. MacLeod, C. Isaza LondoƱo, E. E. Martin, Ɓ. JimƩnez Berrocoso, C. Basak. Changes in North Atlantic circulation at the end of the Cretaceous greenhouse interval. Nature Geoscience, 2011; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1284

University of Missouri-Columbia (2011, October 27). Prehistoric greenhouse data from ocean floor could predict Earth's future, study finds. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 31, 2011, from http://www.sciencedaily.com­ /releases/2011/10/111027150213.htm
 


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